At a plenary session of the Mazhilis, Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin submitted to the deputies the Forecast of the country’s socio-economic development for 2026–2028, primeminister.kz reports.
The Deputy Prime Minister noted that under the baseline scenario, real GDP growth in 2026 will amount to 5.4%, with an average annual growth of 5.3% over three years. Nominal GDP will increase from 183.8 trillion tenge in 2026 to 229.8 trillion tenge in 2028. Economic growth will be driven by expansion in the real sector and the services industry.
It was noted that in Kazakhstan’s manufacturing industry, growth rates are forecast to increase from 6.2% in 2026 to 6.6% in 2028 due to the implementation of investment projects.
The average three-year growth is projected as follows: mining industry – 2.8%, agriculture – 3.9%, construction – 11.0%, transport services – 10.1%, trade – 6.7%.
Exports are forecast to increase from $77.1 billion in 2026 to $83.7 billion in 2028, while imports are projected to rise from $67.7 billion to $75.2 billion.
At the same time, inflation is projected at 9.0–11.0% in 2026 and an average of 6% in 2027–2028. Based on the macroeconomic forecast, the parameters of the budget and the National Fund for 2026–2028 have been developed.
Serik Zhumangarin also reported on the state of public finance. It was emphasized that Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy aims to ensure the sustainability and balance of public finances, reduce the budget deficit, and replace National Fund transfers with own revenues.
The budget forecasting was based on the fiscal rules and targets established by the Public Finance Management Concept until 2030.
According to the presented data, revenues excluding transfers in 2026 are projected at 19.2 trillion tenge, or 10.5% of GDP. Compared to the estimate for the current year, this represents an increase of 4.7 trillion tenge. Over the planning period, revenues are expected to grow to 23.2 trillion tenge by 2028, or by 20.8%. Overall, the coverage of the republican budget by own revenues will rise from 63.7% in 2025 to 83.5% in 2028.
The Deputy Prime Minister said that the guaranteed transfer from the National Fund is set at 2,770 billion tenge annually. The rate of expenditure growth in 2026–2028 is stabilized at 108.7–109.3%.
Expenditures of the republican budget in 2026 will amount to 27.7 trillion tenge, or 15.1% of GDP; in 2027 – 28.8 trillion tenge, or 14.0% of GDP; in 2028 – 29.8 trillion tenge, or 13.0% of GDP.
It was emphasized that with these levels of revenues and expenditures, the budget ensures self-sufficiency, without the need to attract additional funds from the National Fund in the form of a targeted transfer.
It was also noted that the fiscal and non-oil deficits are set at 2.5% and 4.9% of GDP in 2026, respectively, with subsequent reductions to 0.9% and 2.7% of GDP in 2028. Taking this into account, government debt is forecast to stand at 21.4% of GDP in 2026, decreasing to 19.6% in 2028, which does not exceed the established covenants.
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