18.10.2017, 16:34 4235

Kashagan to produce 13M tons of oil in 2020

"Based on this, we estimate that all those who are fully paying to the National Fund have a dropping output. And the tax revenue from those with increasing output, such as Kashagan, will be received by the National Fund only after they have reached a real rate of return [on their investments] in accordance with the Production Sharing Agreement we signed," the Prime Minister said.

The Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Bakytzhan Sagintayev, shared on Wednesday his forecasts on the state treasury revenue from oil production for the next few years, Kazinform reports.

"If we consider the revenue forecast and the way the National Fund is set, we need to understand the elements it is composed of. It is definitely the crude oil output (it is growing) and the world oil price. Therefore, we assume $50 a barrel as the reference price in our tax revenue forecast for 2017... As to 2018-2020, we drew up a tax revenue forecast based on $45 as a price. That is, we have a five-dollar difference, thus, we lose here," Sagintayev told a plenary session of the Majilis of the Kazakh Parliament. Besides, according to the Prime Minister, the oil production should grow by 2020 owing to the Kashagan field.

"Secondly, as to the output [of oil], it is growing, the forecast for this year was about 84.5 million tons. However, the forecast shows that there will be some growth at the end of the year. By 2020, we forecast over 87 million tons. What is this growth composed of? First of all, it is surely Kashagan. Production is growing at the Kashagan field: today's 6 million [is planned] to double up to 13 million in 2020," the Prime Minister clarified.

According to him, the output of other oil producing companies is decreasing.

"Based on this, we estimate that all those who are fully paying to the National Fund have a dropping output. And the tax revenue from those with increasing output, such as Kashagan, will be received by the National Fund only after they have reached a real rate of return [on their investments] in accordance with the Production Sharing Agreement we signed," the Prime Minister said.

Sagintayev underscored that only the republic's share will be received from Kashagan. "All these figures show that although the output increases, in fact, there will be lower revenue. Moreover, next year we will complete the modernization of all three refineries. In view of this, the volume of supply to these refineries will grow from 16 million to 19 million, i.e. a 3-million growth. Needless to say that here we will also be losing the mineral extraction tax revenue, which will be received by the National Fund, as well as the export royalties," the Head of the Government said.

Sagintayev summed up: "These factors show us that although the output is growing and the oil price is stabilizing, the revenue receipts to the National Fund are dropping at the same time. If there are positive price changes we will approach you next year for clarification, then, the figures will definitely change."

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