Kazakhstan After the Elections: A New Political Cycle and an Infrastructure-Led Agenda

Kazakhstan has entered a new political cycle. Following the elections, the unicameral Kurultai began its work, a new leadership of the legislature was appointed and the government was reshuffled. At the same time, the appointments demonstrated continuity within the executive branch. In the economy, energy, transport infrastructure and transit development remain the main priorities, while persistently high inflation continues to limit the scope for a rapid easing of monetary policy.

The most significant domestic political development was the establishment of a new legislative framework. Following the 23 August elections, the 145-member unicameral Kurultai began its work.

Five parties secured representation. Adilet won 110 seats, Auyl 10, Respublica nine, while Ak Zhol and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party each secured eight. Adilet received 6,528,948 votes, or 71.17% of the total.

At the first session on 28 August, Aibek Dadebay was elected Speaker of the Kurultai. Nurlan Beknazarov, Dania Yespayeva and Dinara Zakiyeva were appointed Deputy Speakers. Eight standing committees were also established.

The beginning of the new political cycle did not lead to a sweeping overhaul of the executive branch. The government resigned before the newly elected Kurultai, but Olzhas Bektenov was reappointed prime minister on 31 August.

While a significant proportion of the Cabinet retained their posts, several ministries received new leaders. Mukhtar Tileuberdi was appointed foreign minister, Alibek Kuantyrov became minister of ecology and natural resources, Arman Kyrykbayev was named minister of culture and information, and Murat Mukhanov took charge of the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

The formation of a new configuration of Kazakhstan’s highest state institutions also continued. Erlan Karin became vice-president, while Murat Baimukashev was appointed on 5 September to head the newly established Office of the Security Council.

The new office will be a state body directly subordinate and accountable to the president, as well as the working body of the Security Council. It will provide analytical, informational and organisational support for the council’s activities.

The political changes during this period therefore combined institutional renewal with continuity in personnel. The new Kurultai and the establishment of the vice-presidency are changing the structure of state power, while the retention of the prime minister and much of the government indicates that the previously chosen policy course will continue.

Security cooperation within the Organization of Turkic States emerged as a separate priority. On 10 September, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met the interior ministers of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye and Uzbekistan ahead of a meeting of the OTS Council of Interior Ministers.

Tokayev said cooperation among the Turkic states was strengthening year by year, with interaction expanding across various areas, including between law enforcement agencies.

Economic priorities were also becoming increasingly prominent in foreign policy. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek on 1 September, member states adopted 29 documents, including the Bishkek Declaration.

Kazakhstan proposed developing an SCO transport strategy through 2035, creating a common trade and investment space, and hosting the headquarters of a future SCO Development Bank.

Bilateral diplomacy also produced practical results. During Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith’s visit to Kazakhstan, the two countries signed four memoranda:

Following Mukhtar Tileuberdi’s appointment, the president instructed the Foreign Ministry to consistently advance Kazakhstan’s national interests, strengthen its balanced foreign policy and develop economic diplomacy.

The new minister’s first engagements focused primarily on regional relations. On 7 September, he held telephone talks with the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The discussions covered bilateral relations, trade and economic ties, humanitarian cooperation, regional and international issues, and the implementation of previous agreements.

On 8 September, Tileuberdi held talks with Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev. The discussions focused on trade, investment, transport and logistics, water and energy cooperation, and cultural and humanitarian ties.

The same day, Tileuberdi received US Ambassador Julie Stufft. The two sides discussed key bilateral issues, prospects for further developing the enhanced strategic partnership, the Kazakh president’s forthcoming participation in the G20 summit in Miami, and preparations for high-level contacts.

This series of meetings shows that economic diplomacy remains one of Kazakhstan’s key foreign policy priorities. Regional cooperation, the SCO and relations with the United States are increasingly linked to trade, investment, transport and technology.

The economic agenda during this period combined major state-backed infrastructure projects with relatively tight monetary conditions.

On 4 September, the National Bank cut its base rate by 50 basis points to 16.25% per annum. Annual inflation stood at 9.8% in August.

According to the central bank’s updated forecast, inflation is expected to range between 9% and 11% by the end of 2026. It is projected at 6.5% to 8.5% in 2027 before moving closer to the medium-term target of 5% in 2028.

The rate cut marked a cautious easing of monetary conditions. However, high inflation, elevated inflation expectations and persistent upside risks continue to limit the scope for faster reductions in borrowing costs.

Against this backdrop, the government continues to expand the country’s economic infrastructure. It approved an investment agreement between the Ministry of Energy and GRES Kurchatov LLP for the construction of a 700MW condensing power plant. The project is valued at 881 billion tenge.

Two 350MW generating units are scheduled to be brought into operation in stages by 2032. Once fully operational, the plant will be able to generate up to five billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually.

Rising electricity demand makes the expansion of generating capacity essential for further industrial development. New power capacity is needed not only to meet current consumption but also to support future industrial and infrastructure projects.

Transport remains the second major strategic priority. Kazakhstan is building approximately 3,400 kilometres of roads in 2026.

Around 5,000 kilometres of railway tracks have been built or modernised over the past five years, while transit freight volumes have reached 33 million tonnes.

The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route has expanded particularly rapidly. Freight volumes along the route have increased 5.6-fold over five years, from 800,000 tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes. The capacity of Kazakhstan’s seaports is expected to rise from 21.8 million tonnes to 30 million tonnes by 2030.

Energy and transport projects are creating an interconnected infrastructure network. New generating capacity is intended to meet the economy’s growing energy needs, while the expansion of roads, railways and ports will strengthen Kazakhstan’s position as a manufacturing and transit hub between Asia and Europe.

One notable development on the social agenda was the expansion of citizens’ ability to manage part of their financial assets independently.

From 7 September, members of Kazakhstan’s Unified Accumulative Pension Fund were allowed to transfer up to 100% of savings accumulated through mandatory pension contributions, mandatory occupational pension contributions and voluntary pension contributions to private investment portfolio managers.

Previously, a 50% limit applied to savings accumulated through mandatory and mandatory occupational contributions, while savings from voluntary contributions could already be transferred in full.

The rule change gives contributors greater choice while increasing the importance of the performance of private asset management companies. The role of individual investment decisions in the pension system is therefore gradually expanding, while the overall state-administered savings framework remains in place.

Regulation of the digital environment was another focus of public debate.

Kurultai member Zhanarbek Ashimzhanov proposed developing a mechanism to restrict social media registration for children under the age of 16, strengthening the protection of their personal data and introducing permanent monitoring of social media’s impact on pupils’ health and academic performance.

The initiative is part of a broader drive to strengthen protections for minors online. It remains a proposal, however, and the specific mechanism for any potential restrictions has yet to be developed.

The political and economic decisions taken in late August and early September form part of a broader model. Following the institutional changes, Kazakhstan’s new political cycle is moving into its practical phase.

Keeping Olzhas Bektenov as prime minister and retaining a significant proportion of the government ensures continuity in economic policy. At the same time, the new Kurultai, the vice-presidency and the Office of the Security Council are creating an updated political and institutional framework to support that policy.

Two interconnected areas stand out in the economy: energy and transport infrastructure. Both are intended to remove constraints on long-term growth and strengthen Kazakhstan’s role in Eurasian trade and investment flows.

The construction of new generating capacity should ease energy constraints, while the modernisation of roads and railways should improve domestic connectivity. The development of the Trans-Caspian route and port infrastructure is expected to further expand the country’s transit potential.

Foreign policy follows the same logic. Kazakhstan’s initiatives within the SCO, engagement with neighbouring countries and contacts with the United States are increasingly linked to specific economic priorities, including investment, trade, transport and technology.

Inflation, however, remains the main macroeconomic constraint. The reduction of the base rate to 16.25%, alongside a year-end inflation forecast of 9% to 11%, indicates that large-scale investment activity will continue to coincide with relatively high borrowing costs.

This creates a dual challenge for economic policymakers. On the one hand, Kazakhstan needs to accelerate infrastructure development and expand the economy’s productive capacity. On the other, it must ensure that rising public and private investment does not increase domestic demand faster than the supply of goods and services can grow.

The end of August and the beginning of September established the main parameters of the next phase of Kazakhstan’s state policy. The new Kurultai has begun its work, the executive branch has maintained continuity, and the establishment of the vice-presidency and the Office of the Security Council has completed the updated institutional configuration.

In the economy, the focus is on building the infrastructure needed for long-term growth. Energy, roads, railways, the Trans-Caspian route and port capacity are becoming key elements of a policy intended to strengthen the domestic economy and the country’s role as a transit hub.

At the same time, economic diplomacy is becoming increasingly aligned with these objectives. Kazakhstan’s initiatives within the SCO, its regional engagement and its cooperation with the United States are focused on developing trade, transport links, investment and technology.

Inflation remains the main constraint on this agenda. Its success will therefore depend not only on the scale of new infrastructure projects, but also on the country’s ability to expand supply, sustain investment and steadily reduce price pressures.

The combination of political continuity, infrastructure development and economic diplomacy is becoming the foundation of Kazakhstan’s new policy cycle. Its long-term resilience, however, will depend on whether growing investment can be translated into higher productivity and greater domestic supply.