IMF predicts the year China's economy will surpass U.S.
The U.S. could lose its status as the world's biggest economic power within five years, IMF predicts, Kazakhstan Today reports.
Almaty. April 26. Kazakhstan Today - The U.S. could lose its status as the world's biggest economic power within five years, IMF predicts, Kazakhstan Today reports.
The International Monetary Fund predicts China will overtake the U.S. in 2016, which will effectively end the 'Age of America' a decade before most analysts had expected, the Daily Mail reported.
It means that whoever wins the 2012 presidential election will have the dubious honour of presiding over the fall of the United States.
It is the first time the IMF has put a time frame on the communist country's inevitable march, and the forecast has profound implications for the balance of global power.
The Washington-based fund claims its estimate is based on the comparative purchasing power of the two countries.
The news casts a deepening cloud over the future of the dollar as the world's dominant currency as well as Washington's attempts to close the budget gap and rein in the nation's ballooning debt.
But politicians argue Beijing's technology is lagging behind and much of China lives in poverty. The Asian country also trails way behind the U.S. in output per person.
In 2009 the IMF calculated gross domestic product per head in the U.S. at 28,000 pounds, compared to 2,500 pounds in China.
The IMF seemed almost embarrassed to announce the news, inserting its prediction without fanfare on its website in recent days.
China as strictly enforced price controls and kept the value of its currency, the yuan renminbi (RMB), artificially low.
This has paved the way for the manufacture and export of goods at irresistibly low prices. The 'Made In China' label has become synonymous with remarkably affordable products - even if the quality and ethics remain questionable.
Ironically, one of the biggest consumers of these products is the U.S. - simultaneously bulking up China's economy while starving its own, and delivering the purchasing power of the world's largest economy to its main rival.
China has been accelerating towards the U.S. with remarkable speed. Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times that of China's.
It's a staggering statistic, even when taking into account the fact that the U.S. economy has been dropping down to meet China's meteoric rise.
The 2016 date has taken many analysts by surprise, many of whom were optimistic that America could hold out until the later part of the 2020s.
But Brett Arends writes in the Wall Street Journal that many have been looking at the wrong criteria when judging the prospects of both countries.
He said analysts were comparing China's gross domestic product (GDP) against that of the U.S. - 'a largely meaningless comparison in real terms'.
Instead, IMF analysts compared the difference in 'purchasing power parities' - what people earn and spend in their respective domestic markets.
Using this criteria, they found that the Chinese economy would grow from $11.2 trillion in 2011 to $19 trillion in 2016.
Over the same period, the U.S. economy will rise from a dominant $15.2 trillion to a trailing $18.8 trillion.
Photo: Daily Mail
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Kazakhstan turns to high-value added manufacturing with building polyethylene plant it Atyrau region
Images | primeminister.kz
Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan Olzhas Bektenov met with the heads of the world's largest oil and gas chemical companies – President of China Petrochemical Corporation (SINOPEC) Zhao Dong and Chairman of the Board of SIBUR LLC Mikhail Karisalovб primeminister.kz reports.
The key issue is the joint construction of the first integrated gas chemical complex for polyethylene production at a cost of about $7.7 billion and a capacity of 1.25 million tonnes per year, which will account for 1% of the world's total capacity.
A tripartite protocol was signed during the meeting, officially finalising SINOPEC's entry into the project. The ownership structure of the plant is as follows: KazMunayGas 40%, SINOPEC 30%, SIBUR 30%.
Head of the Government emphasised the importance of the project due to its focus on the production of high value-added products.
A gas separation complex (GSC) will be built at the Tengiz field to supply the "Polyethylene" project with feedstock (ethane). The capacity of the GSC is 9.1 billion m3 of dry gas processing per year, of which 1.6 million tonnes of ethane is expected to be produced.
Ethane will be sent through the main pipeline from Tengiz to the Karabatan site (territory of FEZ NINT, Atyrau region), where the polyethylene plant will operate.
It is planned to produce about 22 grades of polyethylene using American licence technologies of Chevron Phillips and Univation, 40% of which will be premium grade. A wide range of applications for both industrial and household purposes makes polyethylene the most popular polymer in the world.
Polyethylene is used in the fields of medicine, prosthetics, defence, food industry, construction, space industry and others. This polymer is used in the production of a wide range of goods: from plastic wear-resistant pipes, construction materials, medicines, syringes, prostheses to bulletproof vests, clothing for astronauts and car parts. Target markets include Kazakhstan, CIS countries, China, Turkey and European countries. At the same time, for domestic consumption, the realisation price will be lower than the import price.
The Head of State has identified deep processing of hydrocarbons as one of the key areas of development of the oil and gas sector. The priority for our economy is high conversion production producing products with a rapid increase in added value in the technological chain with an export orientation. The added value between the initial feedstock ethane and the third conversion product polyethylene increases 20 times, from $80-90 to $1600-1800 per tonne. The Polyethylene project will certainly give a serious impetus to the development of both the manufacturing industry and the country's economy as a whole. According to experts' calculations, the contribution to the country's GDP by 2030 from the implementation of the project is estimated at approximately 1.2%," Olzhas Bektenov said.
The construction of the plant is planned to be completed by 2029. During the construction period more than 8 thousand jobs will be created, during the operation period about 850 jobs will be created.
It was noted that the project is realised with the support of the Government. The plant will be built on the territory of a special economic zone with the provision of appropriate infrastructure and special tax regime. In this regard, Prime Minister emphasised the attention of the project participants to the need to maximise the use of local potential.
We on the part of the state provide comprehensive support in the implementation of projects important for the country's economy. At the same time, we expect you to increase the share of local content. For this purpose, it is necessary to determine the list of goods and equipment that will be mandatorily purchased from domestic producers. Special attention should be paid to training of Kazakhstani specialists and transfer of competences. It is important for us to maximise the attraction of local personnel, including for management positions in the project. We count on a similar approach in the implementation of other joint projects," Prime Minister emphasised.
Thus, in addition to the plant "Polyethylene" it is planned to build a gas separation complex and a trunk pipeline.
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Olzhas Bektenov and Head of the Sakha Republic Aysen Nikolayev discuss issues of trade and economic cooperation
Images | primeminister.kz
Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan Olzhas Bektenov met with the Head of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) Aysen Nikolayev, who arrived on a visit to Astana to participate in the opening ceremony of the Days of the Republic of Sakha in Kazakhstan, primeminister.kz reports.
The Republic of Sakha contributes to the development of Kazakhstan-Russia trade relations. The implementation of agreements reached at the level of the presidents of Kazakhstan and Russia on further expansion of bilateral trade and economic cooperation was reviewed.
Over the year, trade turnover between the regions of Kazakhstan and the Republic of Sakha has grown almost 2-fold, exceeding $160 million, with over 99% of exports of Kazakhstani goods. During the discussion a wide potential of mutual trade was noted and the parties' readiness to increase turnover in agricultural, industrial and IT spheres was outlined.
The parties confirmed their intention to intensify joint work on expanding the range of supplied goods and services, establishing direct contacts between business circles. It is expected that a new impetus to trade and economic relations will also be given by the launch of five major cross-border trade centres in Kazakhstan, including the Eurasia Cross-Border Trade Centre on the border with Russia.
Special attention was paid to the exchange of experience and technologies in the field of creative industries and digitalisation, as well as interaction between research institutes and educational institutions of Kazakhstan and the Republic of Sakha.
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ADB: Kazakhstan's economy to grow 3.8% in 2024, 5.3% in 2025
Images | Depositphotos
According to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report, Kazakhstan's economic growth rate is projected to decline in 2024 due to a slowdown in the industrial sector caused by stagnant oil production but is expected to recover in 2025 with gains in mining and investment, reports Kazinform News Agency correspondent, citing the bank’s press service.
Economic prospects
ADB forecasts that GDP growth will slow in 2024 but recover in 2025. Growth is forecast to decline to 3.8% in 2024, with industry slowing due to stagnant oil production, before accelerating to 5.3% in 2025 as the expansion of the Tengiz oil field leads to higher oil production starting from the second quarter of 2025.
The prospects for Kazakhstan’s economic development look positive in the medium term," said ADB Country Operations Head in Kazakhstan Iskandar Gulamov.
However, the economy’s dependence on commodities makes such growth volatile-so structural reforms are key to bolstering the country’s economic resilience and sustainability," he added.
Despite a slowdown in 2024, economic growth is expected to be bolstered by consumer spending and investment demand. The anticipated growth in consumption is forecasted to moderate to approximately 4% in both 2024 and 2025 due to a slower increase in real disposable incomes.
Services growth is forecast to slow to 4.7% in 2024 after record growth in 2023 before rebounding to 4.9% in 2025, supported by trade, transport and hospitality, and trade facilitation between Europe and Asia. Industrial growth is forecast to slow to 3.5% in 2024, with smaller gains in mining, and accelerate to 5.7% in 2025 as oil production increases.
Investment growth in Kazakhstan is also projected to moderate, reaching 14.5% in 2024 and 9.0% in 2025, following the completion of significant infrastructure projects. Despite the support from state-sponsored housing construction initiatives and endeavors to attract foreign investment, these factors are expected to contribute to the overall moderation in investment growth.
Inflation rates
ADB forecasts that service prices are forecast to be the main source of inflation, rising 9.8% in 2024 and 8.1% in 2025 due to government-announced increases in utility prices.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan will gradually ease monetary policy and reduce the policy rate in line with the decline in inflation and inflationary expectations. However, rising utility prices and continued strong domestic demand will keep inflation above the National Bank's 5% target.
Caucasus and Central Asia economies
According to an ADB report, Caucasus and Central Asia economies will slow after the boost from re-exports and Russian migrant inflows in 2023. Growth in the subregion is forecast to fall to 4.3% in 2024, down from 5.3% in 2023 bouncing back to 5.0% in 2025.
In Uzbekistan, growth is forecast to moderate to 5.5% in 2024 and 5.6% in 2025 from 6% in 2023, as services, agriculture, and domestic demand cool on persistent inflation and slower growth in household income.
In the Kyrgyz Republic, growth is projected to moderate in 2024 and 2025 with smaller gains in construction and services. Inflation should decline under continued tight monetary policy.
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