Kazakhstan among countries with 'zero' hazard of economic crisis
The analysts defined the countries with the highest risk of currency crisis.
Nomura investment bank has created the index that prevents a currency crisis on emerging markets. The five countries have already faced a crisis within the year, RBC reports.
The analysts of Japan's Nomura have created the index of 'early notification' on currency crisis that was called Damocles (a reference to the ancient Greek myth about the Damocles sword). The index that ranges 30 developing markets on their closeness to currency hazards, as well as will be updated on a quarterly basis, following Nomura's review of September 10.
As of the beginning of the 3rd quarter (July 2018), following the Nomura index, the following seven emerging markets are subject to big hazards: Sri Lanka can face crisis at any time, Argentina and Turkey have already faced it, as well as crisis, can occur in the South African Republic, Pakistan, Egypt and Ukraine in the near 12 months. Nomura economists say that Argentina, Sri Lanka, and Ukraine have already addressed for help from the International Monetary Fund or take part in the Fund's Financial Programme.
The index also enables to define the group of countries with the lowest risks of a currency crisis: Brazil, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Peru, Thailand, and Russia have 'zero' hazards.
Source: BNews.kz
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ADB: Kazakhstan's economy to grow 3.8% in 2024, 5.3% in 2025
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According to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report, Kazakhstan's economic growth rate is projected to decline in 2024 due to a slowdown in the industrial sector caused by stagnant oil production but is expected to recover in 2025 with gains in mining and investment, reports Kazinform News Agency correspondent, citing the bank’s press service.
Economic prospects
ADB forecasts that GDP growth will slow in 2024 but recover in 2025. Growth is forecast to decline to 3.8% in 2024, with industry slowing due to stagnant oil production, before accelerating to 5.3% in 2025 as the expansion of the Tengiz oil field leads to higher oil production starting from the second quarter of 2025.
The prospects for Kazakhstan’s economic development look positive in the medium term," said ADB Country Operations Head in Kazakhstan Iskandar Gulamov.
However, the economy’s dependence on commodities makes such growth volatile-so structural reforms are key to bolstering the country’s economic resilience and sustainability," he added.
Despite a slowdown in 2024, economic growth is expected to be bolstered by consumer spending and investment demand. The anticipated growth in consumption is forecasted to moderate to approximately 4% in both 2024 and 2025 due to a slower increase in real disposable incomes.
Services growth is forecast to slow to 4.7% in 2024 after record growth in 2023 before rebounding to 4.9% in 2025, supported by trade, transport and hospitality, and trade facilitation between Europe and Asia. Industrial growth is forecast to slow to 3.5% in 2024, with smaller gains in mining, and accelerate to 5.7% in 2025 as oil production increases.
Investment growth in Kazakhstan is also projected to moderate, reaching 14.5% in 2024 and 9.0% in 2025, following the completion of significant infrastructure projects. Despite the support from state-sponsored housing construction initiatives and endeavors to attract foreign investment, these factors are expected to contribute to the overall moderation in investment growth.
Inflation rates
ADB forecasts that service prices are forecast to be the main source of inflation, rising 9.8% in 2024 and 8.1% in 2025 due to government-announced increases in utility prices.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan will gradually ease monetary policy and reduce the policy rate in line with the decline in inflation and inflationary expectations. However, rising utility prices and continued strong domestic demand will keep inflation above the National Bank's 5% target.
Caucasus and Central Asia economies
According to an ADB report, Caucasus and Central Asia economies will slow after the boost from re-exports and Russian migrant inflows in 2023. Growth in the subregion is forecast to fall to 4.3% in 2024, down from 5.3% in 2023 bouncing back to 5.0% in 2025.
In Uzbekistan, growth is forecast to moderate to 5.5% in 2024 and 5.6% in 2025 from 6% in 2023, as services, agriculture, and domestic demand cool on persistent inflation and slower growth in household income.
In the Kyrgyz Republic, growth is projected to moderate in 2024 and 2025 with smaller gains in construction and services. Inflation should decline under continued tight monetary policy.
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7th meeting of the Committee for Cooperation of the Republic of Kazakhstan - European Union in trade configuration was held
Images | Ministry of Trade and Integration
On April 9, 2024, in Brussels the 7th meeting of the RK-EU Cooperation Committee in a trade configuration chaired by the Vice-Minister of Trade and Integration of the RK Kairat Torebaev and Acting Director of Directorate E in the European Commission's Directorate-General for Trade and Chief Advisor to the Director-General, Management with Southern Neighbors, the Middle East, Turkey, Russia and Central Asia Leon Delvauxб press service of the Ministry of Trade and Integration reports.
Speakers from government bodies of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the EU were connected online; representatives of the Ministry of Railways, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Agriculture, JSC CRTP QazTrade and JSC Kazstandard took part from the Republic of Kazakhstan.
At the 7th meeting of the Committee, a wide range of issues were discussed: trade and investment developments and trends; implementation of the trade section of the EPCA; implementation of the Ready4Trade Central Asia project; sanitary and phytosanitary measures, including expanding the range of Kazakhstani goods supplied to the EU market; list of export enterprises; recognition of disease regionalization measures in the EU; questions from the High-Level Mission of the Commissioner for Agriculture Wojciechowski.
The importance of interaction in the field of technical regulation, standardization, and metrology was noted.
Moreover, following the results of the 7th meeting, an agreement was reached on the arbitrators in accordance with Article 196 of the EPCA.
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