National Bank of Kazakhstan confirmed inflation forecast

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The Head of State has identified deep processing of hydrocarbons as one of the key areas of development of the oil and gas sector. The priority for our economy is high conversion production producing products with a rapid increase in added value in the technological chain with an export orientation. The added value between the initial feedstock ethane and the third conversion product polyethylene increases 20 times, from $80-90 to $1600-1800 per tonne. The Polyethylene project will certainly give a serious impetus to the development of both the manufacturing industry and the country's economy as a whole. According to experts' calculations, the contribution to the country's GDP by 2030 from the implementation of the project is estimated at approximately 1.2%," Olzhas Bektenov said.

We on the part of the state provide comprehensive support in the implementation of projects important for the country's economy. At the same time, we expect you to increase the share of local content. For this purpose, it is necessary to determine the list of goods and equipment that will be mandatorily purchased from domestic producers. Special attention should be paid to training of Kazakhstani specialists and transfer of competences. It is important for us to maximise the attraction of local personnel, including for management positions in the project. We count on a similar approach in the implementation of other joint projects," Prime Minister emphasised.

Annual inflation in February and March continued to decrease, albeit at a slower pace. Inflation expectations have slightly decreased but remain at a relatively high level. The external inflation background continues to be neutral with the ongoing trend of declining grain prices in global markets. Within the domestic economy, inflationary pressure persists due to robust internal demand and unanchored inflation expectations," reads the bank’s official statement.

In the current circumstances, there is still limited room for easing monetary policy. This space will begin to form with the stable reduction of the stable part of inflation," it said.

Monthly inflation slowed down in March to 0.7% after a spike in the previous month (1.1%), forming above the average historical values (0.6%). A similar dynamic is observed for the indicators of core and seasonally adjusted inflation - a significant reduction in March after a sharp acceleration in February," said the bank.

The external inflation background is neutral. The cost of food in global markets in March shows a slight increase, mainly due to rising prices for vegetable oils. Grain prices continue to decline against the background of the realization of the harvested crop in exporting countries and the uninterrupted operation of maritime trade routes," said the bank.

In the European Union, the trend towards slowing inflation continues against the backdrop of the European Central Bank's restrictive policy. Despite expectations of weaker economic growth indicators this year, the ECB remains committed to returning inflation to its target value and intends to maintain restrictive monetary and credit conditions for this purpose," said National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov in an April 12 statement.

The Federal Reserve notes that inflation in the United States still remains high. In March, the annual inflation rate increased to 3.5%, accelerating for the second consecutive month. According to the Fed's rhetoric, the current monetary and credit conditions will continue going forward. In Russia - a key trading partner of Kazakhstan, inflation in March remained at 7.7%. According to the statement from the Russian regulator, achieving the inflation target involves a prolonged period of maintaining tight monetary and credit conditions," said Suleimenov.

Pro-inflationary risks are conditioned by the continuation of reforms in the area of regulated prices, the consequences of abnormal floods in Kazakhstan, and the uncertainty associated with the volumes of budget expenditures needed for their elimination," the bank said.

By 2027, the woodworking industry plans to launch approximately 11 new productions valued at 32.5 billion tenge, creating 1400 jobs", emphasized the Vice Minister.

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The prospects for Kazakhstan’s economic development look positive in the medium term," said ADB Country Operations Head in Kazakhstan Iskandar Gulamov.

However, the economy’s dependence on commodities makes such growth volatile-so structural reforms are key to bolstering the country’s economic resilience and sustainability," he added.