The President of Kazakhstan made a speech at the 4th meeting of Astana Club, that is an international discussion platform organized as a political forum bringing together leading experts, politicians, and diplomats around the globe, enlisting key global challenges in economics and politics.
According to Nursultan Nazarbayev, the Club's members have a common duty, which is to find a way out of the 'disastrous spiral of confrontation growing ever tighter on the world economy and geopolitics'.
To this end, firstly I would like to emphasize key markers and risks to the new reality. The growing confrontation between the major powers reinforces the uncertainty of today's world order, making events less predictable. The world has never faced such a confrontation. The so-called post-bipolar world order is a thing of the past. We witness the formation of the outline of 'Big Eurasia'. The process is influenced by the changing scenario between the global players, as well as growing competitions between regional Powers," said the head of state.
All these factors, according to the President, had still not cleared away fundamental disagreement regarding a future format of world order.
The worsening of geopolitical rivalry between Russian, the USA and the People's Republic of China also happens around the perimeter of Big Eurasia, including the global context. If we take a look at the history, this strategic triangular has had difficult moments, with their controllability rapidly reducing in the last years. These days possibilities of crises are high, as well as these of incidents capable to lead to large-scale conflicts. One should clearly understand that calculations of crisis situation can lead to a military confrontation," said Nursultan Nazarbayev.
According to the Kazakh President, the strengthening of confrontation between the states questions the effectiveness of all global security institutions.
Today's key trend undermines the bases of strategic stability after World War II. The situation with the agreement to eliminate intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles is increasingly critical. The extension of agreements to reduce strategic and offensive arms that expire in 2021 is in limbo," said Nazarbayev.
According to the President, the world major Powers can revive arms races, which is of a great concern to humanity.
In his speech, he also raised the economic confrontation reaching the phase overtly called trade wars. Such a trade war occurs between the United States and China that make up a third of the global economy, 20% of global exports and over a third of the direct investment inflow.
It will lead to a reduction in economic growth around the world as a whole, and the situation will worsen, particularly in developing countries. Poverty will worsen even greater, as well as unemployment. On top of that, a breeding ground for terrorism, migration, and separatism will occur. The same scenario was in Afghanistan, everything we have these years: drug trafficking, terrorism, extremism is the result of the war waged in 1979," said the President.
He also mentioned economic sanctions imposed on certain states and response counter-sanctions, which are an important issue of geoeconomics of Eurasia.
The possibility of a large-scale military confrontation in some parts of Eurasia is still high. One of the most volatile regions is the Middle East. Instability was caused as a result of the crisis in Syria, the ongoing political tension in Iraq, the civil war in Libya, internal development challenges in Arabic states we are witnessing. All of these are worsened by the scenario of the nuclear agreement with Iran, which was reached in difficult conditions and the world community had worked long on it. In this relation, Kazakhstan demonstrated that having nuclear nukes is not a panacea for security, as we once canceled nuclear weapons demonstrated that we gave more credibility to and trusted the world community. In the near future, the unresolved issues can become even worse by bringing a 'ghost' of a great war back to the Middle East," said the head of state.
According to Nursultan Nazarbayev, 2018 convincingly demonstrates that cybersecurity becomes a more new realm of global stability, where the confrontation between the major Powers is postponed. In the near years, the issue of security of nuclear and other strategic facilities that can be intervened by cyber technologies will increase.
Another challenge is the secure use of communication means. Close economic interdependence developed as a result of the process of globalization is a limiting factor. However, trade wars and sanctions will dilute the significance of it. Uncertainty leads to balance the states towards the cutting edge of a new cold war, with bad consequences for all states," said the President.
The head of state noted that a world full of nuclear weapons cannot afford a bloody outcome to build a new world order on the shard of the old world for the third time.
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