Dams of Almaty will stand no more than one mudflow

Almaty. July 9. Kazakhstan Today - The dams built in Almaty and around will stand no more than one mudflow, Kazakhstan Today reports.

The period of mudflow activity is coming up, which can bring mudflows almost every year. If we do not take any measures, Almaty, as well as Talgar, Issyk and Kaskelen are at risk of disappearing from the face of the Earth after 40 years, a leading researcher of Kazgidromet (Meteorological Service of Kazakhstan) professor Boris Stepanov told the newspaper "Express K".

According to him, the future life of the southern capital will depend on the adequacy of the Kazakh government action against mudflows.

"Studies made by Kazgidromet staff, proved that all of the city at the foot of ZailiyAlatau are located on alluvial fans - landscape formations that remain after the disappearance of mudslides. It is believed that this is the result of the mighty streams, which were formed during the melting of glaciers in the ice age," professor Stepanov said.

He noted that an increase in mean annual temperature by 2 - 3 degrees most of Kazakhstan's glaciers will completely disappear - it will happen by 2050. At the same time in the last hundred years, the average temperature on Earth has risen by 0.6 degrees, and in Kazakhstan - by 1.5.

"Right now in the high zone rainfall falls as snow and hail. And when the average temperature will rise, they will turn into rain, which will lead to a sharp increase in mudflow activity - the nature will rage every year," he explained.

The newspaper notes that a mudflow is a movement of mixture of water and friable fragmental rocks. And the water takes up only 10% of the total mass. The flux density can not exceed 2400 kilograms per cubic meter, and the blocks reach a size of up to 10 meters. In 1921, a mudflow, which destroyed the eastern part of Almaty, was formed as a result of heavy rain fall.

"At that time, the nature of mud and stone floods was unknown. Believed that the mudflows with a flux density of more than 2,400 kilograms per cubic meter can not be formed in the interaction of water flow with the friable fragmental rocks. Scientists believed that the mudflow of 1921 was the result of a powerful shower, the probability of which is once in 10 thousand years. The whole strategyof protection from mudflows in Almaty is based on these erroneous data. And only mudflows that happened in 1958 and 1963 in Issyk, as well as a breakthrough in the lake basin LittleAlmatinkain 1956 showed that there are also glacial mudflows, protection from which is not provided. It accelerated the construction of a dam on Medeu. But by that time it became clear that the capacity of the dam in debris basin of 6 million cubic meters is not enough. Therefore, it was built up by another 50 meters up to 12 million cubic meters. But taking into consideration that the coefficient of the transition from water to mudflow is 1 to 20, then that also will not be enough. It means that we can not say that Almaty is guaranteed secure", Boris Stepanov emphasized.

He also noted that the following question remains unclear: "What should we do with the mass of debris flow after the passage of mudflow? "If you can somehow protect Almaty, than with the cities of Kaskelen, Talgar and Issyk things are much worse. The local alluvial fans indicate that the volume of debris flows can be five times more than the rivers Little and Big Almatinka combined. If in the next 40 years nothing is done, the consequences will be very sad," the expert warned.

Now people disparage mudflow threat. Although it is worth remembering the signs of impending disaster, which includes vague rumble, mud mist, the disappearance of water in the river or its sudden blooming. In such cases, running along the river is meaningless - you need to climb the hill thirty meters, the newspaper writes.

We recall that the natural disaster in Krasnodar region of Russia, which these days suffered from the torrential rains, killed more than 160 people. According to RBC, the evening of July 6 heavy rains fell in the resort town Gelendzhik, in a few hours the city had the five-month rainfall - 304 mm rainfall, 1460 houses were flooded, 17 transformer substations stopped working. 10 people died during the disaster in Gelendzhik. At night, a six-point stormburst in Novorossiysk, after which the work of the local port was interrupted. There were three disaster victims.

The worst situation was in the administrative center of the Crimean region - the Krymsk city. According to the official version of MES, on July 6 at 11.45 p.m. of local time in the Crimean region by the complex impact of adverse weather phenomena sharply raise the water level in the river Bakanka occurred and a few hours later the city was bombarded with water, which flooded a third of Krymsk. Flood victims are more than 159 people, but this is not the final figures and the number of dead can rise.

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