Kok-Zhailau Development Could Lead to the Disappearance of Glaciers, Experts Warn
Development of the Kok-Zhailau mountain plateau could raise temperatures in the surrounding mountains, accelerate glacier melt and alter the region's climate, according to experts from the Ecological Society of Almaty, who shared their views in an exclusive interview with Kazakhstan Today.
"The construction of hotels, apartment hotels, restaurants, chalets, air-conditioning systems, roads, transport infrastructure, cable cars and other man-made facilities will absorb heat and release warm air, creating a vast 'heat island' directly in the mountains. This would inevitably accelerate the melting of glaciers," the experts said.
They also warned that deforestation associated with construction and the reshaping of mountain slopes would increase the spread of dust and soot.
"As dust and soot settle on glacier surfaces, they will intensify glacier degradation. In addition, the removal of thousands of trees along the Kazachka River to build roads and utility networks would eliminate the glaciers' last natural barrier against hot air, dust, smog and soot coming from the city. The eventual disappearance of Almaty's glaciers and rivers would alter the regional climate, making it significantly drier and less favourable for both people and vegetation," the experts said.
According to the specialists, the region is already facing a critical situation.
"Over recent years, nearly all glaciers in the Ile Alatau have suffered substantial losses. Glacier area has declined by 75%, while ice volume has decreased by 50%," they said.
The experts argue that the primary driver of accelerated glacier retreat is the unrestricted flow of exceptionally warm air from the city into the mountains.
"Over the past 23 years, virtually all apple orchards beyond Al-Farabi Avenue have been cleared and built over. For decades, these orchards, together with shelterbelts of tall poplars and elms, acted as a protective buffer zone, preventing warm air from the city from reaching the foothills. The orchards also released moisture into the atmosphere on a daily basis. As the moisture rose, it cooled and formed clouds that produced summer precipitation in the mountains. The clouds, rainfall and orchard vegetation significantly slowed the melting of glaciers and seasonal snow cover," they explained.
A detailed account of the experts' position is available via the link provided in the original publication.
The proposed development of Kok-Zhailau has been the subject of public debate for more than a decade.
In 2011, then Almaty Mayor Akhmetzhan Yessimov announced plans to develop a ski resort at Kok-Zhailau during a government meeting on the city's development.
In 2013, the Almaty administration announced plans to hold a tender for the design and estimate documentation for the project, valued at approximately 3.145 billion tenge.
At the time, the project proceeded despite strong public opposition. Environmental experts, ecologists, athletes and residents argued that the ski resort would damage wildlife, increase the risk of water shortages in Almaty and fail to deliver the projected economic benefits, including higher tourist numbers and new jobs. Public activists subsequently filed a complaint with the Aarhus Convention Compliance Committee.
In 2019, during a meeting of the Public Council, then Almaty Mayor Bauyrzhan Baibek proposed postponing the Kok-Zhailau project for three to five years to allow for a more comprehensive assessment of its potential impact.
Former Minister of Culture and Sports Aktoty Raimkulova later wrote on Facebook that construction of the resort had been postponed on the instructions of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
As the president stressed at the time, such an important project should not be rushed and should be considered only after a thorough review of expert assessments and public opinion.
In December last year, the Tourism Industry Committee of Kazakhstan's Ministry of Culture and Sports published a draft resolution on the Open NPAs portal outlining a Comprehensive Development Plan for the Almaty Mountain Cluster for 2025-2029.
The explanatory note stated that the plan would support tourism development, increase visitor numbers, strengthen Kazakhstan's international tourism profile and improve the investment climate. It envisages the implementation of 127 measures with a total budget of 655.911 billion tenge.
At the time, public activist Azhar Dzhandosova warned that regardless of how environmentally friendly construction methods might be, the development would inevitably affect soils, biodiversity and glaciers, which are already shrinking at an alarming rate, with consequences for Almaty's climate.
A poll conducted by the Kazakhstan Today news agency found that 80% of respondents opposed the development of Kok-Zhailau.
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