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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Kazakhstan's economy to expand by around 4.6% in 2026. However, high inflation remains one of the country's main challenges, requiring the continuation of a tight monetary policy stance to keep price growth under control, according to the findings of an IMF mission to Kazakhstan, cited by the National Bank of Kazakhstan.
The IMF estimated that Kazakhstan's economic growth slowed to 3.7% during the first five months of 2026, down from 6.5% at the end of 2025. The slowdown was largely attributed to reduced oil production following an emergency at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Nevertheless, the negative impact was partly offset by solid performance in services, transport, construction and manufacturing.
The Fund noted that inflation remains well above the target level of 5%. Although annual inflation declined from 12.9% in September 2025 to 10.4% in May 2026, risks of renewed price acceleration persist due to external price pressures, rising quasi-fiscal activity and further increases in utility tariffs.
Inflation is expected to remain at around 10% this year, while inflation expectations are likely to stay weakly anchored.
The IMF said the National Bank of Kazakhstan should be prepared to tighten monetary policy further if the disinflation process stalls.
The organisation also expects an improvement in public finances, supported by higher oil prices and tax reforms. In 2026, the non-oil fiscal deficit is projected to continue narrowing, while the current account, after posting a deficit of 4.1% of GDP in 2025, could return to a modest surplus.
IMF experts highlighted the resilience of Kazakhstan's banking sector, noting that banks continue to maintain adequate levels of capitalisation, liquidity and profitability, while the growth of consumer lending has moderated to more sustainable levels.
Among the main risks to the economy, the IMF identified stronger domestic demand, rising import prices, tighter global financial conditions, weaker investment activity and potential disruptions to the operations of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.
As key priorities for further reforms, the IMF recommended that Kazakhstan reduce the state's role in the economy, encourage private investment, deepen capital markets, modernise infrastructure and improve the efficiency of public spending, including through the use of the digital tenge.
