Kazakhstan Budget Falls Short by KZT 335 Billion Despite GDP Growth
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Kazakhstan's state budget recorded a shortfall of KZT 335 billion in 2025 despite GDP exceeding forecasts by KZT 9 trillion. The main reasons were shortcomings in revenue planning and overly optimistic tax projections, according to the Supreme Audit Chamber.
Chairman of the Supreme Audit Chamber Alikhan Smailov said that during the year, 99 projects worth KZT 75 billion were removed from the budget, while more than 20% of the over 600 investment projects scheduled for completion were not implemented.
The amount of inefficiently used funds exceeded the 2024 level by 1.7 times. At the same time, a high level of budget execution did not guarantee the achievement of planned results. At the central government level, an average of 5% of budget programme indicators were not achieved, while in the regions the figure reached 33%," Smailov said.
According to him, the country also failed to meet 11 key national indicators and more than 30 target indicators in areas including digitalisation, agriculture, water management, environmental protection and other sectors.
State auditors calculated that despite GDP exceeding forecasts by KZT 9 trillion and reaching KZT 159.9 trillion, the budget still received KZT 335 billion less than expected. Among the key reasons were deficiencies in planning and excessive optimism in tax forecasts. In particular, revenue forecasting methodologies were not always followed during the planning stage. Instead, inflated assumptions and additional revenue sources not предусмотрed by the methodology were often used," the SAC chairman noted.
Auditors estimated that in 2025, KZT 154 billion in payments attributable to 2026 were credited in advance, while nearly KZT 900 billion in VAT refunds remained unpaid. However, these measures failed to balance budget revenues and expenditures. By the end of 2025, KZT 244 billion in planned funding had not been allocated, while significant accounts payable obligations had accumulated.
According to the SAC’s conclusion, the quality of tax administration requires particular attention, as the number of court appeals filed by taxpayers increased during the reporting period. This is a significant issue given that more than half of the disputed amounts over the past four years have been ruled in favour of taxpayers.
Risks associated with the shadow economy and insufficient transparency in certain commodity markets also persist. Despite the introduction of product labelling systems and digital monitoring tools, discrepancies between production, import and actual consumption volumes continue to grow.
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Banks Find Business Lending More Attractive Than Consumer Loans
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Kazakhstan's National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov said growth in consumer lending has begun to slow, a correspondent reported.
Consumer lending has slowed its growth, while lending to businesses continues to expand at around 18%," Suleimenov told reporters on the sidelines of a government meeting.
According to the central bank chief, lending to households had been growing by roughly 30% annually over the past three to four years, prompting regulators to take additional measures to reduce risks to the financial system.
Suleimenov said the National Bank, together with relevant government agencies, introduced a sectoral countercyclical capital buffer for loans issued to individuals and tightened requirements governing the maturity of consumer loans. Previously, banks were able to issue such loans with repayment terms of up to seven to nine years, allowing them to reduce monthly payments and circumvent certain prudential restrictions.
We then adopted a number of tax measures. Consumer loans are now subject to a 25% corporate income tax rate for banks, while business loans continue to be taxed at 20%. As a result, banks now have greater incentives to lend to businesses rather than households. These measures are already demonstrating their effectiveness," the National Bank governor said.
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Foreign Investment Inflows into Kazakhstan Rise to $20.5 Billion
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Investment in fixed capital in Kazakhstan increased by 6.7% year-on-year to KZT 4.9 trillion in the first four months of 2026, outpacing the overall rate of economic growth, Deputy Minister of National Economy Arman Kassenov said at a briefing at the Central Communications Service.
According to Kassenov, gross inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) reached $20.5 billion in 2025, up 14.4% from the previous year.
He noted that the structure of Kazakhstan's economy and investment flows has undergone significant changes in recent years.
Today, Kazakhstan's economy is more diversified than it was 10 to 15 years ago. For example, in 2010, oil extraction accounted for 16.5% of GDP. By the end of 2024, the share of the oil-producing industry had fallen to 8.1%. Foreign direct investment is following the same trend: diversification is also taking place on the investor side. Investors are becoming increasingly interested not only in extractive industries, metallurgy and the oil and gas sector, but also in other areas of the economy," he said.
The sectors that attracted the largest volumes of foreign investment last year were:
- Wholesale and retail trade - $4.8 billion;
- Manufacturing - $4.4 billion;
- Financial and insurance activities - $4.3 billion;
- Information and communications - $1.4 billion;
- Transportation and storage - $977 million.
The Netherlands, Russia and China remain Kazakhstan's largest foreign investors.
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Kazakhstan Extends Ban on Export of Certain Timber Products for Six Months
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Kazakhstan has extended a ban on the export of certain types of timber products for an additional six months.
The relevant order was signed by the Ministry of Industry and Construction, an agency correspondent reported.
The export from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan by all modes of transport of certain types of timber products, regardless of their country of origin, shall be prohibited for a period of six months, with the exception of EAEU Commodity Nomenclature code 4406910000 (‘Other coniferous wooden railway or tramway sleepers’) and EAEU Commodity Nomenclature code 4401310000 (‘Wood pellets’), provided that their country of origin is the Republic of Kazakhstan," the order states.
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Tourism Generated KZT 630 Billion in Tax Revenue for Kazakhstan
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Tax revenues from Kazakhstan’s tourism sector reached KZT 630 billion ($1.2 billion) last year, up 18% from the previous year, Minister of Tourism and Sports Yerbol Myrzabossynov said at a government meeting.
More than 600,000 people are currently employed in the industry, the minister noted.
Tax revenues increased by 18% to KZT 630 billion. Foreign tourists spent $2.9 billion in Kazakhstan. Investment attracted to the tourism sector rose by 33% year-on-year to KZT 1.3 trillion. The industry's contribution to the national economy reached KZT 5 trillion," Myrzabossynov said.
According to the minister, eco-tourism continues to demonstrate steady growth. Visitor numbers to Kazakhstan’s national parks reached 3.7 million last year.
Business and convention tourism is also emerging as a sector with significant export potential.
Last year, Kazakhstan hosted 13 international events that generated approximately $18 million for the economy. To strengthen the country’s position in the global market, existing infrastructure constraints must be addressed. In particular, Almaty, as the country’s main business hub, requires a modern international-standard convention and exhibition centre. An appropriate decision on this issue should be made," Myrzabossynov said.
He also highlighted the strong potential of medical tourism, noting that Kazakhstan welcomed around 80,000 foreign patients last year.
Another unique tourism asset of the country is the Baikonur complex, the world’s first and largest spaceport. The time required for foreign visitors to obtain permits has been reduced to 10 days. This has improved accessibility and enabled tour operators to expand launch-viewing programmes and off-launch tourism activities. The Gagarin Launch Pad, the Assembly and Refuelling Complex, and the Dynamic Test Facility transferred to Kazakhstan have considerable tourism potential. However, their development will require modernisation and substantial investment. Project teasers have already been prepared for potential investors," the minister said.
Myrzabossynov noted that one of the key events of this year will be the international tournament "Games of the Future", which will take place in Astana from July 29 to August 9.
The event is expected to bring together around 900 athletes from more than 50 countries, as well as representatives of international sports organisations, the digital industry, media outlets and fans.
The minister said that Kazakhstan is currently implementing 328 tourism investment projects with a total value of approximately KZT 1.3 trillion. Twenty-five internationally branded hotels are expected to be commissioned.
Among the major projects scheduled for completion by the end of 2027 are a Hilton hotel in Shymkent worth KZT 17.5 billion, a Marriott hotel complex in Konaev valued at KZT 28 billion, and the Zhibek Zholy resort and entertainment complex with an investment value of KZT 53.3 billion.
The minister also said that the sector’s digital transformation is continuing. More than 900,000 users have already been registered in the eQonaq tourist flow monitoring system, while an upgraded Kazakhstan.travel portal featuring an AI assistant and traveller services is scheduled to be launched by the end of 2026.
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Kazakhstan’s Oil Production Rises to 100 Million Tonnes Per Year
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Kazakhstan’s annual oil production has increased from 80 million tonnes to 100 million tonnes over the past decade, a correspondent reports.
Growth was uneven, with declines in 2020-2021 due to the pandemic and OPEC+ production restrictions. However, in the long-term trend, Kazakhstan has strengthened its position," the Energy Analytics Telegram channel said.
According to the report, the key drivers behind the increase in oil production have been the country’s major energy projects - Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak.
The increase has been particularly noticeable since 2016, when production rose from 78 million tonnes in 2016 to 86 million tonnes in 2017 (...) Kazakhstan has managed not only to maintain production levels but also to reach a new record high of around 100 million tonnes in 2025," the report said.
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