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Kazakhstan's state budget recorded a shortfall of KZT 335 billion in 2025 despite GDP exceeding forecasts by KZT 9 trillion. The main reasons were shortcomings in revenue planning and overly optimistic tax projections, according to the Supreme Audit Chamber.
Chairman of the Supreme Audit Chamber Alikhan Smailov said that during the year, 99 projects worth KZT 75 billion were removed from the budget, while more than 20% of the over 600 investment projects scheduled for completion were not implemented.
The amount of inefficiently used funds exceeded the 2024 level by 1.7 times. At the same time, a high level of budget execution did not guarantee the achievement of planned results. At the central government level, an average of 5% of budget programme indicators were not achieved, while in the regions the figure reached 33%," Smailov said.
According to him, the country also failed to meet 11 key national indicators and more than 30 target indicators in areas including digitalisation, agriculture, water management, environmental protection and other sectors.
State auditors calculated that despite GDP exceeding forecasts by KZT 9 trillion and reaching KZT 159.9 trillion, the budget still received KZT 335 billion less than expected. Among the key reasons were deficiencies in planning and excessive optimism in tax forecasts. In particular, revenue forecasting methodologies were not always followed during the planning stage. Instead, inflated assumptions and additional revenue sources not предусмотрed by the methodology were often used," the SAC chairman noted.
Auditors estimated that in 2025, KZT 154 billion in payments attributable to 2026 were credited in advance, while nearly KZT 900 billion in VAT refunds remained unpaid. However, these measures failed to balance budget revenues and expenditures. By the end of 2025, KZT 244 billion in planned funding had not been allocated, while significant accounts payable obligations had accumulated.
According to the SAC’s conclusion, the quality of tax administration requires particular attention, as the number of court appeals filed by taxpayers increased during the reporting period. This is a significant issue given that more than half of the disputed amounts over the past four years have been ruled in favour of taxpayers.
Risks associated with the shadow economy and insufficient transparency in certain commodity markets also persist. Despite the introduction of product labelling systems and digital monitoring tools, discrepancies between production, import and actual consumption volumes continue to grow.
