20.09.2012, 15:10 3588

Russia may double its imports of grain from Kazakhstan and Ukraine

During years of good harvests, Russia's wheat import volumes are not significant and cannot have a substantial effect on its (domestic supply-demand) balance. This year the situation is completely different and grain imports may become an important factor for the stability of the grain balance.

Almaty. September 20. Kazakhstan Today - Major wheat exporter Russia may this year double its usually small imports of grain from neighbouring Kazakhstan and Ukraine to cover shortfalls due to drought in some regions and ensure minimum inventories, analysts and industry sources said.

"During years of good harvests, Russia's wheat import volumes are not significant and cannot have a substantial effect on its (domestic supply-demand) balance," SovEcon agriculture analysts said, according to Business Recorder.

"This year the situation is completely different and grain imports may become an important factor for the stability of the grain balance," analysts said on Sovecon's website. In good harvest years, such as 2011/12, Russia imports about 1 million tonnes of grains a year, mainly wheat from Kazakhstan to its border regions in the Urals and Siberia, as well as some top quality milling wheat that Russia cannot supply. Forecasts for this year do not indicate that the country as a whole will face an outright deficit.

Russia is expected to produce around 70 million-75 million tonnes of grain this year and to consume around 70 million tonnes. If its exports reach 10 million-12 million tonnes as expected, carryover stocks that now total 15 million tonnes are likely to drop to between 5 million and 8 million tonnes. While Russia will be able to meet most of its domestic demand, several regions, like the north-west and Far East, face local deficits that may be covered by imports, according to the Institute for Agriculture Market Studies (IKAR). Kazakhstan will be the main source of imported milling wheat for Russia this year, while Ukraine could export feed grains to Russia, mostly maize (corn), SovEcon said.

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