Brent crude oil price exceeds $119 per barrel for first time since June 17, 2022
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The price of Brent crude oil for May 2026 delivery exceeded 119 US dollars per barrel on London's ICE Exchange for the first time since June 17, 2022, according to trading data, Qazinform News Agency cites the TASS.
As of 5:30 a.m. Moscow time (2:30 a.m. GMT), oil was trading at $119.36 per barrel (up 28.77%).
By 5:35 a.m. Moscow time (2:35 a.m. GMT), the price of oil was at $117.8 per barrel (up 27.09%).
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National Bank Keeps the Base Rate at 18%
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The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to set the base rate at 18% with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point. The decision is based on the forecast round results, updated assessments of key macroeconomic indicators and inflation risks balance, nationalbank.kz reports.
Annual inflation slowed down to 11.7% in February (12.2% in January) in line with forecast. Price growth is slowing across all inflation components. The food prices growth amounted to 12.7% (12.9%), non-food - 11.6% (11.7%), paid services - 10.8% (12%).
Disinflation is being supported by moderately tight monetary conditions, appreciation of the tenge, slowdown in unsecured consumer lending, reduction of excess liquidity through gradual increase of minimum reserve requirements and mirroring of gold purchases, comprehensive set of anti-inflationary measures implemented jointly with the Government. The moratorium on increase in prices for utilities and fuel contributes to the inflation decline as well. The impact of the VAT rate increase on inflation assessed limited.
At the same time, monthly inflation has accelerated and reached 1.1% in February 2026. The core inflation stood at 0.8%
Household inflation expectations one year ahead have decreased, but remain elevated and volatile (13.7% in January). February inflation expectations of professional market participants for 2026 have decreased to 10.0% (10.8% in January).
Global food prices continue to slow. Prices for dairy products and sugar continue to decline. Global prices increase has been recorded for cereals and vegetable oils.
Inflation remains elevated in Russia, the target is expected to be reached by 2027. The price growth in the European Union remains persistently low. In the United States the inflation is approaching its target under the US Federal Reserve calibrated policy.
Under the baseline scenario, in the first half of the year Brent oil prices are projected to be temporarily higher than previously assumed, amid persistently elevated prices associated with the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Thereafter, oil prices are assumed to gradually decline to around USD 60 per barrel, based on the balance of global supply and demand. According to forecast, on average, it will amount to USD 66.3 per barrel in 2026 and stabilize at around USD 60 per barrel in the following years.
The inflation forecast for 2026 has been revised downward. Price growth is projected at 9.5-11.5% (previously 9.5-12.5%). Along with this, the National Bank expects the inflation to reach single-digit levels as a result of the implementation of joint actions by the Government and the National Bank, ensuring predictable fiscal and quasi-fiscal policies, as well as a reduction in the contribution of utilities and fuel prices to inflation growth. Inflation is projected to slow to 5.5%-7.5% by the end of 2027. By the end of 2028, it will be close to the 5% target.
Pro-inflationary risks have somewhat eased following the moderate price response to the VAT rate increase. Risks continue to be concentrated in domestic factors, including the effects of increases in regulated prices and elevated inflation expectations. The actual implementation of the planned budget consolidation in 2027-2028, as well as the scale and parameters of quasi-fiscal stimulus, also require attention. If transfers from the National Fund are not reduced as planned, the budget deficit does not decline, or quasi-fiscal stimulus expands without sufficient control, the disinflationary effect may weaken.
GDP growth forecast for 2026 remains in the range of 3.5-4.5%. A more balanced trajectory of economic activity in 2026 and further is expected due to the high base. Domestic demand is expected to slow amid fiscal consolidation and cooling consumer lending.
The National Bank will continue to assess the pace of inflation slowdown, the developments in domestic demand, the actual execution of fiscal consolidation measures, and the implementation quality of quasi-fiscal stimulus policies. The effectiveness of anti-inflationary measures will also be monitored jointly with the Government, along with developments in utility and fuel prices and the ongoing adaptation of households and businesses to the tax reform. Subject to a sustained slowdown in inflation and the absence of new pro-inflationary shocks, the possibility of the base rate cut will be considered from the second half of 2026. Under current conditions, the space for monetary policy easing has not yet developed.
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Kazakhstan eyes coal production ramp-up to deliver new energy projects
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Kazakhstan seeks to meet the rising coal demand for its new energy projects by increasing mining capacity and upgrading the sector, Qazinform News Agency reports.
These issues were on the agenda of a meeting chaired by Vice Minister of Energy Yerlan Akbarov, with the participation of the country’s largest coal-mining companies.
The meeting took place as part of the implementation of the Head of State’s directives given at the 5th meeting of the National Qurultay, with a focus on a new national project for the development of coal-based power generation.
As noted by the Ministry of Energy, the project is aimed at strengthening the role of coal as a strategic resource for Kazakhstan, which has reserves exceeding 33 billion tons. The project involves expansion of generation capacity as well as comprehensive modernization of the sector - from attracting investment and upgrading fuel and logistics infrastructure to introducing environmental solutions and training personnel.
According to the ministry’s forecasts, the demand for thermal coal for new projects will exceed 19 million tons per year by 2032. This requires an accelerated increase in production capacity.
In particular, Bogatyr Komir LLP plans to increase coal production from 42.7 million tons in 2024 to 45.2 million tons by 2026, and to reach 56.5 million tons by 2032. By that time, the company intends to invest 360 billion tenge in the construction of new cyclic-flow technology facilities, the purchase of equipment, and the modernization of production capacities. At the same time, digital solutions are being introduced, including an MES system and freight flow optimization, which will enhance efficiency and safety in mining operations.
Shubarkol Komir JSC also announced plans to increase production. The company expects to raise output to 16.1 million tons by 2026. Its investment program for 2026-2032 is estimated at 95.5 billion tenge and provides for technical re-equipment, equipment upgrades worth 49.4 billion tenge, the implementation of the second phase of the Cyclic-flow overburden complex-2, and the introduction of digital technologies, including Hovermap 3D mapping systems and robotic dump trucks.
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Kazakhstan ready to create favorable conditions for Serbian entrepreneurs - Tokayev
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Presidents Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan and Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia held a press briefing for media representatives on Friday following the highest-level talks, Qazinform News Agency reports, citing the Akorda press service.
We held detailed discussions on cooperation in trade, transport and logistics, energy, industry, agriculture, information technology, and artificial intelligence, as well as the cultural and humanitarian agenda. We have reached a series of concrete agreements. Particular attention was paid to expanding trade-economic and investment cooperation. Bilateral trade turnover is demonstrating growth. As of today, approximately 60 Serbian companies are operating successfully in Kazakhstan. Clearly, our economic capabilities provide room for even greater growth. We aim to expand trade volumes and implement promising, mutually beneficial investment projects. In my view, this must become a top priority for the Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation," stated President Tokayev.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted that Aleksandar Vučić’s delegation included major Serbian entrepreneurs who participated in the Kazakhstan-Serbia Business Council meeting.
The necessity of strengthening ties between the two countries' business communities has been emphasized. Overall, Kazakhstan is ready to create favorable conditions for Serbian entrepreneurs. We also specifically discussed the expansion of transport and logistics links. Last year, the launch of direct flights between Astana and Belgrade marked a significant step toward deepening bilateral cooperation. During the talks, we also reviewed opportunities to effectively use the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route and to launch new logistics routes. Another topic of discussion was infrastructural interaction. Relevant ministries and operators have been entrusted with defining specific formats for collaboration. Special emphasis is being placed on energy and industry. We agreed to join efforts in the extraction and advanced processing of critical raw materials to develop high-tech industrial sectors," the President concluded.
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Serbia interested in expanding presence of Kazakhstani companies in joint projects
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At today’s extended-attendance talks, President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić thanked President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for a warm welcome and confirmed Belgrade’s readiness for further strengthening of multifaceted cooperation with Astana, Qazinform News Agency learnt from the Akorda press service.
The President expressed interest in expanding the participation of Kazakhstani companies in joint projects, first of all, in the construction sector.
He said Serbia is ready to develop projects proposed by Kazakhstan, which may become flagship projects not only for Serbia but also for the entire region in this part of Europe.
The issue of granting Kazakhstan’s SCAT airline the fifth freedom rights in Serbian airspace was raised, with hopes for a mutually beneficial resolution. He also said Serbia is ready to welcome Kazakhstani investors and construction firms, which will help improve the investment attractiveness of Serbia and contribute to the development of mutual cultural and tourism ties. He also pledged to apply the best efforts to support Serbian entrepreneurs who wish to invest in Kazakhstan.
The Serbian leader emphasized significant potential for building cooperation in defense, AI and data centers. He also praised achievements in Kazakhstan’s socioeconomic development, regarding them as a symbol of progress for the world.
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UK strikes critical minerals deal with Kazakhstan
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Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper will announce a critical minerals deal with Kazakhstan on Thursday as the West scrambles to diversify its supply chains away from China, politico.eu reports.
Britain’s top diplomat will host foreign ministers from the five Central Asian countries - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan - at Lancaster House in London.
Cooper will unveil the critical minerals deal with Kazakh Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev, alongside pacts with the other countries covering carbon capture and higher education.
Central Asia is an important region with huge potential to boost economic growth," Cooper told POLITICO in a statement. "These agreements deliver for British businesses, strengthen economic security and are a clear demonstration of U.K. support for the independence of the Central Asian states."
The new plan of action will diversify U.K. supply chains by supporting British investment in critical minerals in Kazakhstan. The MoU was signed by Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister for Industry Olzhas Saparbekov and Trade Minister Chris Bryant.
Global demand for critical raw materials is rising rapidly, driven by clean energy technologies, advanced manufacturing and defence industries," Kosherbayev wrote in a recent op-ed. Kazakhstan, he noted, produces 22 of the 36 minerals identified in the U.K.’s Critical Minerals Strategy last November, including uranium, titanium, silicon and rhenium.
Kazakhstan is a global critical minerals powerhouse, supplying over 40 percent of the world's uranium and leading in titanium production. It is a top‑ten copper and zinc exporter.
Early this month, U.K. Foreign Minister Seema Malhotra was in Washington for a key meeting of 50 nations to diversify critical mineral supply chains away from China. The U.K. set out a Critical Minerals Strategy last November to ensure that by 2035 no more than 60 percent of Britain’s supply of any one critical mineral comes from a single country.
In further efforts to support the economic security and independence of the Central Asia republics, Cooper will also announce a new agreement on U.K. education cooperation with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, alongside a second campus for Coventry University in Almaty, Kazakhstan, and a new AI center at Cardiff University’s campus in Astana.
She will also unveil a deal for British start-up Valor Carbon and the Government of Kyrgyzstan to develop carbon capture projects and a £100 million deal to plant 25,000 hectares of forest.
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Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom Deepen Economic Cooperation in Priority Sectors
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As part of his visit to London, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan Yermek Kosherbayev held talks with the UK’s Acting Minister of State for Business and Trade and Co-Chair of the UK-Kazakhstan Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation, Chris Bryant, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan reports.
As Co-Chair of the Kazakhstan-UK Intergovernmental Commission, you play an important role in advancing our multifaceted partnership. We believe that through this mechanism we will be able to achieve further practical outcomes. By expanding innovative partnerships in priority sectors, including critical minerals, nuclear energy, digital transformation and artificial intelligence, our countries can lay the foundation for long-term mutually beneficial cooperation," said Minister Kosherbayev, during the meeting.
Both sides welcomed the positive momentum in political dialogue and the sharp growth in bilateral trade, which reached 1.6 billion US dollars last year - an 84% increase. Particular attention was given to the strong performance of British investment in Kazakhstan, where more than 500 UK-affiliated companies are currently operating. These include major projects in priority sectors such as critical minerals, green energy, digital technologies and artificial intelligence.
In the energy sector, thesides confirmed the continued stability of Kazakh oil supplies to Europe and discussed opportunities to expand cooperation with British companies.
Minister Kosherbayev underscored the strategic importance of developing the critical minerals sector and highlighted successful joint projects with UK companies, including Rio Tinto and Maritime House. Under the recently signed Roadmap on Critical Minerals, the two sides agreed to intensify cooperation in the extraction and processing of rare earth elements.
A particular attention was paid to the United Kingdom’s Critical Minerals Strategy published last year, in which Kazakhstan is presented as a case study of an effective and long-term partnership.Of the 36 minerals designated as strategically important by the UK, 22 are already produced in Kazakhstan - including uranium, titanium, silicon and rhenium. This underlines Kazakhstan’s role as a key partner in strengthening resilient and diversified supply chains.
The interlocutors agreed that cooperation in this field is moving into a practical phase. The focus is shifting beyond extraction toward value creation - including processing and refining, recovery of associated components, development of specialised services, establishment of modern recycling capacity, and transparent financial mechanisms to support investment projects.
A separate segment of the talks focused on cooperation in education. In particular, the opening of a new campus of Coventry University in Almaty and plans to expand the presence of Heriot-Watt University in Kazakhstan were discussed. Minister Kosherbayev highlighted the success of dual-degree programmes, student exchanges and internships, as well as the publication of the first Oxford Kazakh dictionary and the launch of Kazakh language courses at Oxford University.
The parties also discussed the prospects for digital and technological partnership, including cooperation with OneWeb and the development of collaboration in the field of artificial intelligence. In healthcare, Kazakhstan noted the valuable contribution of British experts and companies to the modernization of its national healthcare system.
Concluding the meeting, Acting Minister Bryant reaffirmed the United Kingdom’s commitment to further strengthening its strategic partnership with Kazakhstan, expanding practical cooperation and deepening intergovernmental dialogue to deliver tangible results in the economy, science and technology.
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