National Bank Keeps the Base Rate at 18%
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The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to maintain the base rate at 18.0% with a corridor of +/-1 percentage point, nationalbank.kz reports.
Inflation for 2025 stood at 12.3%, in line with the National Bank’s forecast. The largest contribution to inflation is the food component (13.5%), within which strong increases in prices for meat and oils are driven by higher production costs and elevated export supplies. Non-food inflation eased somewhat (to 11.1%) amid exchange rate appreciation in recent months, while price increases for paid services slowed (to 12.0%) as a result of administrative reductions in tariffs for regulated housing and utility services.
Monthly inflation in December 2025 edged up somewhat and amounted to 0.9%. Core inflation remains elevated at 0.8%.
Inflation continues to evolve in an environment where sustained domestic demand exceeds supply capacity. Second-round effects from the tariff reform and the liberalization of the fuel market continue to be passed through into expectations and prices.
Household inflation expectations one year ahead have increased (to 14.7%) and remain volatile. Inflation expectations of professional market participants for 2026 have also risen somewhat, to 10.8%.
Global food prices, despite declining in recent months, still remain at elevated levels. Prices for cereals and sugar continue to rise. In Russia, inflation is slowing amid tight monetary conditions, while in the European Union it remains persistently low. In the United States, the Federal Reserve continues to reduce interest rates gradually, while noting rising inflation risks associated with trade policy. Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, increasing uncertainty and potentially creating a more inflationary global environment.
Economic growth in Kazakhstan in 2025 amounted to 6.5% year-on-year, with strong growth persisting in transport, construction, trade, as well as in the mining and manufacturing industries.
Pro-inflationary risks are mainly driven by domestic factors: demand outpacing the growth of supply, and prolonged second-round effects from increases in regulated and fuel prices. Additional uncertainty arises from the parameters and design of the planned large-scale quasi-fiscal stimulus, which may reduce the disinflationary effect of the consolidation of the republican budget. Risks are also associated with the implementation of the tax reform, which envisages both an increase in the VAT rate and a broadening of the taxpayer base, as well as the subsequent adjustment of businesses over the coming quarters.
Disinflation is being supported by moderately tight monetary conditions, a slowdown in unsecured consumer lending (new lending up 7.3% year-on-year over the first eleven months of 2025), the reduction of excess liquidity through higher minimum reserve requirements and the mirroring of gold purchases, as well as the appreciation of the tenge.
Monetary policy. The dynamics of inflation and the balance of risks are in line with the National Bank’s forecasts and assessments. At the same time, external challenges, uncertainty regarding the scale of the impact of changes to the tax system and the parameters of the resumption of growth in utility tariffs and fuel prices from the second quarter of this year warrant a balanced and cautious approach to setting the base rate. Accordingly, the base rate is highly likely to be maintained at its current level until the end of the first half of 2026.
The National Bank will continue to monitor price developments and assess the effectiveness of joint initiatives under the Joint Action Programme for Macroeconomic Stabilization and Welfare Enhancement for 2026-2028, as well as the Comprehensive Measures for the Control and Reduction of Inflation.
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Kazakhstan set to accelerate expansion of its energy capacities
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At the Ulttyq Qurultay, President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev stressed the need for Kazakhstan to rapidly increase its energy capacity without waiting for the completion of the construction of nuclear power plants, Qazinform News Agency reports.
He noted that the country currently generates 123 billion kWh of electricity that is insufficient to meet strategic development plans. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized that data centers consume as much energy as metallurgical plants, making energy self‑sufficiency a critical element of state policy.
The President highlighted Kazakhstan’s significant coal reserves, nearly 33 billion tons, enough to last roughly 300 years at current consumption levels.
He said coal is a strategic asset that should be fully utilized with modern technologies to minimize environmental damage. He stressed Kazakhstan needs to commission new energy capacities without waiting for the completion of the construction of nuclear power plants.
The Head of State instructed the Government to grant coal‑based generation the status of a national project and resolve the issue by March 20.
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Oil production suspended at Tengiz and Korolev fields
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Tengizchevroil (TCO), the field operator, has confirmed the suspension of oil production at Tengiz and Korolev. The decision was made following technical issues with the power supply, Qazinform News Agency reports.
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The company emphasizes that the Tengiz field and associated operational facilities remain in a safe condition. The decision to halt operations is a precautionary measure.
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Kazakhstan and Spain Discuss Cooperation in the Energy Sector
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Ambassador of Kazakhstan to Spain Danat Mussayev held a meeting with Secretary of State for Energy of Spain Joan Groizard, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan reports.
The parties exchanged views on current issues on the energy agenda, including ensuring the sustainable development of the energy sector, matters related to the energy transition, improving energy efficiency, and the introduction of modern technological solutions.
Ambassador informed the Spanish side about the priorities of Kazakhstan’s state policy in this field, including the measures being implemented to modernise the sector, diversify the of energy sources, develop renewable energy, and strengthen the resilience of energy infrastructure.
For his part, Secretary of State noted Spain´s interest in expanding dialogue with Kazakhstan in this area and shared Spanish experience in developing green energy, adapting energy systems to contemporary challenges, and ensuring energy security.
Following the talks, the interlocutors confirmed their intention to further develop practical mechanisms in this field and agreed to continue work on elaborating joint initiatives.
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KMG redirects 300,000 tons of oil amid CPC restrictions
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At the end of 2026, in response to restrictions on the supply of Kazakh oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system, urgent measures were undertaken to redirect volumes via alternative export routes through the network of JSC KazTransOil, Qazinform News Agency reports, citing KazMunayGas press service.
Around 300,000 tons of oil were redirected through the KazTransOil system for further export deliveries to Germany, China, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, and via the ports of Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga.
In January 2026, given the continuing restrictions on CPC’s intake of oil, measures to redirect supplies will be continued.
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Kazakhstan’s bank assets surge 11% to 68.3 trillion tenge
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President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met on Thursday with Madina Abylkassymova, Chairperson of the Agency for Financial Market Regulation and Development, Qazinform News Agency has learned from the Akorda press service.
The Head of State was briefed on the results of the national financial sector development in 2025 and strategic objectives for the coming period.
According to the report presented at Akorda, the banking sector maintained its resilience throughout the past year, completing its annual supervisory assessment cycle. Total banking assets increased by 11%, reaching 68.3 trillion tenge, while capital adequacy is 20.7%.
Madina Abylkassymova also reported on a recently drafted Law on Banks, alongside updated legislation governing investment funds and credit rating activities.
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To support small and medium-sized enterprises, a dedicated SME Loan Guarantee Fund was established within the Damu Fund in June 2025. It has already issued KZT 505 billion in credit guarantees.
President Tokayev was informed that consumer lending growth slowed by 50% compared to 2024 levels. This follows a ban on loans exceeding 5 years for borrowers with existing arrears, and new restrictions on high-risk loans and those with terms of 3 to 5 years. Additionally, a new aggregate debt-to-income ratio has been established. To reduce household over-indebtedness, banks and microfinance organizations have conducted debt restructuring and partial forgiveness for 703,000 borrowers. Under the individual bankruptcy mechanism, financial institutions have cleared KZT 209.7 billion in debt for 56,000 citizens.
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Kazakhstan’s Eurasian FDI hits $9.4 billion in H1 2025
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Kazakhstan emerged as a frontrunner among Eurasian nations in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), Qazinform News Agency reports.
At the end of the first half of 2025, accumulated foreign direct investment from Eurasian countries into Kazakhstan's economy had grown by 11.2% within two years. In contrast, the average growth rate across other countries in the region was 6.4%.
By mid-2025, the total volume of accumulated FDI from Eurasian countries in Kazakhstan reached $9.4 billion, accounting for 19.5% of all intra-regional investments.
The absolute growth of investment in Kazakhstan totaled nearly $1 billion, which analysts estimate accounts for more than a third of the total increase in mutual investments across the entire Eurasian region.
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