Система Orphus

National Bank of Kazakhstan announced GDP forecast

07.12.2021, 17:42 323538
Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan Akylzhan Baimagambetov announced the GDP forecast in 2021.

I'll start with economic activity. The dynamics are developing according to our optimistic scenario of the last forecast round, which assumed the price of Brent crude at $ 70 per barrel. Taking into account the positive on the market and forecasts of international organizations, this time we cautiously raised oil prices under the baseline scenario from $ 60 to $ 70 per barrel," Baimagambetov said.

According to him, taking into account these prerequisites at the end of 2021, GDP growth is still projected within the range of 3.7-4.0 percent, Kazpravda.kz reports.

The main source of growth will be the recovering consumer demand, which is supported by the growth of real incomes of the population and consumer lending. A certain increase in investments is expected. Exports will provide additional support to GDP growth due to the expansion of external demand and a slight increase in the production of energy resources," the Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan continued.

It should also be noted that the export of a number of metals and products from them has grown this year. On the contrary, an increase in imports is capable of limiting GDP growth due to the recovery of domestic consumer and investment activity.

Now about what will happen next year. In 2022, the economy will grow by 3.9-4.2 percent. The growth will be provided by a weaker impact of the pandemic on business activity and an increase in energy production due to the softening of OPEC + restrictions. The gradual increase in oil production as part of the OPEC + deal and the subsequent completion of the terms of the agreements next year will help increase the volume of energy production. This will have a positive effect on both exports and more active investment dynamics. Growth factors will remain the same as in the current year," concluded Akylzhan Baimagambetov.

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