National Bank Revises Inflation Forecast for 2025-2026
Images | Depositphotos
The inflation forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised. Inflation in 2025 is expected in the range of 12.0-13.0%, and in 2026 within 9.5-12.5%. By the end of 2027, inflation is expected to slow to 5.5-7.5%. This revision is driven by the substantial overshoot of actual inflation relative to forecasts this year and by the elevated trajectory of inflation expectations. At the same time, the forecast revision also takes into account a more predictable increase in regulated prices, reflecting the revised pace of the reform carried out under the "inflation + 5%" scheme in 2026-2027, nationalbank.kz reports.
The wider forecast range for 2026 reflects increased uncertainty in assessments related to the implementation of the tax reform and the response of aggregate demand, as well as the substantial increase in quasi-fiscal financing and its stimulative impact on the economy.
Disinflationary effects over the forecast horizon will be supported by a moderately tight monetary policy stance, fiscal consolidation, and measures implemented under the Joint Action Programme. Pro-inflationary effects will come from further liberalization of the fuel market and increased pressure from domestic demand driven by quasi-fiscal stimulus.
Forecast risks are associated with the intensification of imbalances between domestic demand and lagging supply, the acceleration of external inflation and inflation expectations, and second-round effects from increases in regulated prices, fuel prices, and VAT rate. A key source of uncertainty is the growing influence of increased financing to the economy by Baiterek National Managing Holding JSC (which, according to Government statements, is planned at 8 trillion tenge, equivalent to 4.4% of GDP in 2026), which may intensify inflationary pressures and partially offset the effect of the forthcoming fiscal consolidation.
The economic growth forecast for Kazakhstan for 2025 has been revised upward to 6.0-6.5%, reflecting the impact of faster growth in oil production, as well as an acceleration in investment and consumer demand in the final months of the year, partly driven by the upcoming VAT reform in 2026. The forecast for 2026 has been revised downward to 3.5-4.5% due to the high base of 2025 and the constraining effects of the fiscal reform and fiscal consolidation on domestic demand. In 2027, economic growth is projected in the range of 4.0-5.0%. The growth will be supported by continued growth in investment activity, moderate consumer demand, and higher oil production.
Strong domestic demand, amid declining real incomes and rising imports, increases the importance of coordination between fiscal and monetary policy. In this regard, the Government, the National Bank, and the Financial Regulation Agency are implementing the Joint Action Programme for Macroeconomic Stabilization and Welfare Enhancement for 2026-2028 (hereinafter - the Programme). The Programme is aimed at addressing imbalances between demand and supply, improving the efficiency of budget expenditures, implementing micro- and macroprudential measures, increasing real household incomes, and creating conditions for sustainable economic growth through reducing and stabilizing inflation.
Given the moderately tight nature of current monetary conditions, the expected contribution of the Programme, and measures to cool demand in consumer lending, the Committee’s decision aims to ensure a sustainable disinflationary trajectory.
The National Bank will continue to assess the pace of disinflation, the response of domestic demand, and the effectiveness of the coordinated measures implemented under the Programme and the Comprehensive Measures on Inflation Control and Reduction.
At present, the National Bank sees no room for rate cuts until the end of the first half of 2026, taking into account elevated inflation expectations, core inflation dynamics, and the delayed impact of tariff and tax reforms. In the absence of convincing evidence of a sustained disinflationary trend, the possibility of tightening monetary conditions cannot be ruled out.
This information may not be reproduced without reference to Kazakhstan Today. Copyright of materials of News Agency Kazakhstan Today.
relevant news
Kazakhstan and Hungary Strengthen Strategic Economic and Investment Partnership
Images | gov.kz
The Ambassador of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Hungary, Abzal Saparbekuly, held a meeting with the State Secretary for Economic Development and Industry of the Ministry of National Economy of Hungary, Mate Loga, as well as with the Deputy State Secretary, Marton Bokai. During the meeting, the parties discussed the current state of trade, economic and investment cooperation between Kazakhstan and Hungary, as well as prospects for its further development, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan reports.
Both sides noted that Hungary is a key trade and economic partner of Kazakhstan in Central and Eastern Europe. Satisfaction with the steady development of bilateral economic cooperation and reaffirmed their mutual interest in its further deepening was also expressed.
Ambassador A. Saparbekuly confirmed Kazakhstan’s plans to diversify the structure of exports to Hungary and to increase export volumes to USD 700 million through supplies of products from the metallurgical, petrochemical, machine-building, food and construction materials industries. Hungary was highlighted as an important investment partner of Kazakhstan, emphasizing that since 2005 the total volume of direct Hungarian investments attracted to Kazakhstan economy has exceeded USD 409 million.
The activities within the Kazakhstan-Hungary Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation was also discussed in detail. Established in 2008, the Commission has become an important platform for the development of bilateral economic relations. The parties expressed hope that the 9th meeting of the Commission would be held in Astana in 2026, noting that this would contribute to further intensification of trade, economic and investment cooperation. In this regard, the importance of exchanging information on the implementation of the agreements reached within the framework of the Protocol of the 8th meeting of the Commission held in 2023, as well as discussing new areas of cooperation to be included in the agenda of the next meeting, was emphasized.
One of the key initiatives of bilateral cooperation is the establishment of the Kazakhstan-Hungary Joint Investment Fund with an initial capital of USD 100 million. The parties discussed the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on the establishment of this Fund.
Following the meeting, the parties confirmed their readiness to further strengthen the strategic economic partnership between Kazakhstan and Hungary and to implement joint projects aimed at the sustainable development of the economies of the two countries.
This information may not be reproduced without reference to Kazakhstan Today. Copyright of materials of News Agency Kazakhstan Today.
Oil and gas condensate production volume for 11 months of 2025 amounted to 91.9 million tons - Ministry of Energy
Images | Depositphotos
Deputy Minister of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Sungat Yesimkhanov reported at the Government session on the current state of the fuel and energy complex for January-November 2025, primeminister.kz reports.
He noted that during the reporting period, oil and gas condensate production amounted to 91.9 million tons, or 114.1% compared to the same period last year. The oil production plan for the end of 2025 stands at 96.2 million tons. Oil exports over 11 months amounted to 73.4 million tons, or 116.1% compared to the same period of 2024.
It should be noted that the 2025 oil export plan of 70.5 million tons has been achieved," Sungat Yesimkhanov added.
The Deputy Minister also reported that during the reporting period, 62.8 billion cubic meters of gas were produced, or 116.7% compared to the same period last year. The 2025 gas production plan of 62.8 billion cubic meters has been fulfilled. Liquefied petroleum gas production amounted to 2.8 million tons, or 101.8% compared to the same period last year. Gas transit through the territory of the country amounted to 64.5 billion cubic meters, or 100.9% compared to the same period last year.
According to the ministry, the planned volume of petroleum product production amounts to 14.5 million tons, or 100% of the 2024 actual figure. The volume of oil and gas chemical products amounted to 567.6 thousand tons, or 112.2% compared to the same period last year. The plan for 2025 is 590 thousand tons, or 109.3% of the 2024 actual figure.
During the reporting period, electricity generation amounted to 111.4 billion kWh, or 104.4% compared to the same period last year. The plan for the current year is 117.9 billion kWh. Over 11 months, electricity generation from renewable energy facilities amounted to 7.3 billion kWh, or 104.2% compared to the same period last year. The achievement of key indicators is under constant monitoring," Sungat Yesimkhanov emphasized.
This information may not be reproduced without reference to Kazakhstan Today. Copyright of materials of News Agency Kazakhstan Today.
Kazakhstan’s Export Potential Discussed in Hong Kong
Images | gov.kz
A roundtable was to discuss the export potential of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The event was organized by the Consulate General of Kazakhstan in Hong Kong to promote Kazakhstan’s export in the Hong Kong market, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan reports.
Participants included Hong Kong officials, entrepreneurs, and employees from science and research centers. The Consul General of Kazakhstan in Hong Kong, Bauyrzhan Dosmanbetov, opened the event with a speech, where he emphasized the importance of developing trade and economic cooperation between Kazakhstan and Hong Kong.
The main element of the program was a presentation showcasing the opportunities of the Kazakh market for Hong Kong representatives. Attendees noted the high potential of Kazakh products, particularly in the food industry, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals.
Additionally, Lee Kin-kay, Deputy Commissioner of the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department, expressed the importance of further developing cooperation between the regions in trade and logistics. During discussions, key aspects such as quality standards, product safety, and the development of logistical infrastructure for successful exports were highlighted.
As a result, recommendations were developed to strengthen cooperation between Kazakhstan and Hong Kong. Participants agreed to continue joint initiatives to support Kazakhstani exporters and promote their products in the Hong Kong market, marking an important step towards improving trade relations between the two regions.
This information may not be reproduced without reference to Kazakhstan Today. Copyright of materials of News Agency Kazakhstan Today.
Growth in revenues and support for regions: 21.9 trillion tenge credited to the state budget
Images | Depositphotos
Despite the decline in global oil prices and external economic factors, Kazakhstan’s budget system is demonstrating resilience, and all social obligations will be fulfilled in full. Minister of Finance Madi Takiyev reported on budget execution for 11 months at the Government session, primeminister.kz reports.
According to the head of the ministry, as a result of 11 months, state budget revenues amounted to 21.9 trillion tenge, or 100.1% of the plan. Compared to the same period last year, revenues increased by 2.9 trillion tenge.
Revenues of the republican budget reached 13.6 trillion tenge, while local budgets demonstrated stable dynamics, ensuring revenues of 8.2 trillion tenge with over-fulfillment of the plan by more than 384 billion tenge.
The Minister noted that budget execution is taking place under the influence of external factors, including a decline in global oil prices and a reduction in exports. However, the measures taken made it possible to maintain the stability of the financial system.
Despite external factors, the revenue parameter remains stable. All state obligations - social payments, wages, transfers to regions, and development programs - will be fulfilled in full," Madi Takiyev emphasized.
An important role was played by improvements in tax and customs administration, which ensured additional revenues of 660 billion tenge. At the same time, more than 1 trillion tenge was refunded to exporters, supporting the solvency of businesses.
Budget expenditures are directed to priority tasks: 8.3 trillion tenge was allocated for social support, 6.9 trillion tenge for regional development, and 1.8 trillion tenge for the real sector of the economy. In total, 870 projects are being implemented, including the national projects "Comfortable School" and "Auyl - Yel Bessigi."
The Minister separately focused on the work of the Special State Fund. Using its funds, 465 projects with a total value of 482.5 billion tenge are being implemented. Priority areas include water supply to rural settlements (258 projects), healthcare (183 facilities), and sports.
Spending efficiency increased due to public procurement reform: savings amounted to 824 billion tenge, and procurement from domestic producers increased 1.5 times. The state audit system prevented inefficient expenditures totaling 396 billion tenge.
Madi Takiyev also reported on digital transformation in the education sector. The launch of the unified "Bilimge" portal made it possible to automate the financing of private schools, reducing the duration of procedures to 10-15 days.
This information may not be reproduced without reference to Kazakhstan Today. Copyright of materials of News Agency Kazakhstan Today.
Economic growth of Kazakhstan amounted to 6.4% in January-November 2025
Images | Depositphotos
At the Government session chaired by Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan Olzhas Bektenov, the results of socio-economic development for January-November 2025 were reviewed. A report was delivered by Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, primeminister.kz reports.
According to the Vice Prime Minister, Kazakhstan’s economy is demonstrating steady dynamics. As a result of 11 months, GDP growth amounted to 6.4%. At the same time, growth in the real sector (8.3%) continues to outpace the services sector (5.3%).
The main drivers of the economy were the transport sector (+20.3%), construction (+14.7%), and the mining industry (+9.7%). Positive dynamics were also observed in trade (+8.8%), agriculture (+6.1%), and manufacturing (+5.9%).
Investment in fixed capital remains an important development factor, increasing by 13.3% to reach 18.5 trillion tenge. Private investment grew by 9.8%.
The largest inflow of capital is observed in sectors that form the basis of high-quality growth: financial activities (+82.8%), energy supply (+57.9%), education (+31.6%), and manufacturing (+20.7%)," Serik Zhumangarin noted.
In the regional breakdown, Akmola, Pavlodar, Zhambyl, Almaty, and Aktobe regions were the leaders in terms of investment growth rates.
In the real sector, manufacturing continues to post strong performance. Growth was driven by an increase in output in mechanical engineering by 11.6%, including automotive manufacturing (+15.2%) and the production of electrical equipment (+16.7%). Production volumes of food products (+8.7%), beverages (+9.2%), and construction materials (+7.1%) also increased. A significant role was played by financial support from the Baiterek holding, which directed more than 8 trillion tenge to priority sectors.
The mining sector grew by 9.7% due to increased production of oil (+14.1%), natural gas (+16.7%), and coal (+9.7%).
Special attention was paid to the agro-industrial complex, which entered a phase of seasonal growth. Gross agricultural output increased by 6.1%. Thanks to favorable weather conditions, a record grain harvest of about 27 million tons was obtained for the second consecutive year. Record volumes of legumes (1 million tons) and oilseeds (4.7 million tons) were also harvested.
The construction sector is demonstrating growth at the level of 14.7%. Since the beginning of the year, 16.9 million square meters of housing have been commissioned, which is 3.9% higher than last year’s figures. The leaders in housing commissioning were Zhetysu Region, Ulytau Region, and Karaganda Region.
Foreign trade turnover for January-October amounted to $116.3 billion. A positive trade balance has been maintained, exceeding $12.9 billion.
This information may not be reproduced without reference to Kazakhstan Today. Copyright of materials of News Agency Kazakhstan Today.
Kazakhstan to boost annual gas transit through Uzbekistan to 8.4bln m³
Images | Depositphotos
The Ministry of Energy has announced plans to increase the volume of gas transit through the territory of Uzbekistan, Qazinform News Agency reports.
As it was reported, QazaqGaz and Uztransgaz signed a contract for gas transit through Uzbekistan.
Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov clarified that this concerns the transit of Russian gas.
“This is the transit of Russian gas. Overall, we are considering the issue of increasing transit volumes to 8.4 billion cubic meters per year,” he said.
This information may not be reproduced without reference to Kazakhstan Today. Copyright of materials of News Agency Kazakhstan Today.